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2014: A year for optimism

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43% of the inhabitants of Santo Domingo and Santiago think the country is "wrong '" or "very bad", However, 64% He thinks that in this year the situation is going to improve.

Between November and December of the 2013 n = 1,201 persons interviewed in Santo Domingo and Santiago, between 18 Y 64 year old, in all socioeconomic levels. We asked about their perception of the current situation of the Dominican Republic and about their personal situation. At the same time, We explore their expectations of how they would change such situations this year 2014.

We found that the Dominican recognizes the crisis that has affected the country, and a 43% It states that the current situation is "very bad" or "evil". A 53% It defines it as "Regular". only one 4% He understands that it is a good time for the country and are encouraged to say that things in the country walk "Good" or "Very good". However, Despite this negative perception of the current situation, a 64% He says that in this next coming year will improve the country's situation.

Sira AnamwongNevertheless, when they are referring to your personal situation, perspective changes. Only a 19% He says his personal situation is "very bad" or "evil", 55% It defines it as "regular" and 26% He says that on a personal level is "very good" or "good". Expectations for improvement in the near future on a personal level are higher than for the country, reaching a 78% those who think that their personal situation will improve this year (Vs. 64% which he says the same about the situation of the country).

This could indicate several things: 1) The benchmark to assess the country is not only the reality itself, but references possibly other realities, 2) That social desirability prevents sometimes recognize itself as a serious situation and it is easier to project in the other, 3) The true reality of the country "is not as bad as it looks" or 4) That the Dominican is optimistic despite the difficulties prefer to feel that their reality is better than it really is.

Santiago residents tend to be more radical in their statements, a higher proportion claiming that their situation or that the country is "very bad" or "very well". They tend to use less frequently intermediate points scale, At the same time, more frrecuencia think that the inhabitants of Santo Domingo that the situation of the country or their personal situation will improve this year.

While there are not many significant differences by socioeconomic status in the country assessment, if we found in the personal situation evaluyación, It is greater the percentage of people of lower socioeconomic status who believe that "very bad" or "evil"(achieves 25%), while the highest levels significantly increases the proportion of those who indicate they are "very good" or "good" (achieves 41%).

Another thing we found is that as age increases positive expectations for improvement (Personal or country) decrease and the proportion increases thinks it will get worse.

We may venture to conclude that the Dominican is optimistic, he perceives himself better position than the generic society (or you are less easy to perceive itself in negative terms) and it has hope for a positive change in the medium term, which is stronger at young ages and tends to decrease with age.

Is this expectation of improvement is sustained by the hope that "other" (Government?) do something for the country, possibly impact your personal situation, or it is supported by the conviction that one's own efforts and work will be determining factors?... Let's leave this for a future reflection based on the analysis of some new questions included in this survey.

Expect the 2014 allow optimism and expectations horizons of change and prosperity in all our environments, personal and social.

Dominicans celebrate Christmas dinner with the family

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After a short break we return to turn us on with the blog. Season New Year's Eve is intense for almost any business and all who worked on market research we know that for our particular is an extremely active period. Our customers intensify their use of research to try to take advantage of the resources allocated for the year and have information for next year. All it took months awaiting approval gleams suddenly ... and time is short field because at this point it's hard to go out to collect information (all potential respondents are aware of their purchases and pre-Christmas preparations). So with this brief description of our day to day at this time I apologize for not writing in recent weeks. I know most of you surely will understand and identify with our situation.

In any case ... we did not want to miss the moment to seize and collect some information about holiday celebrations among Dominicans and wish compatirlos with you. Possibly data are not surprised, or that differ much from what happens in other countries in Latin America, but it's nice to have some quantification over the same. So for Christmas gift from Christmas we share these data:

interview 1201 people in Santo Domingo and Santiago, from 18 a 64 years, of all socioeconomic levels and found that the 92% used to celebrate Christmas. As age advances holding decreases slightly, ranging from 92% among the younger age groups up 82% among older. Equally, as it descends the socioeconomic level decreases celebration, ranging from 97% Class AB to 88% Class E. And a curious fact is that Santiagueros are more likely to outweigh the celebration and significant 6% celebrations in Santo Domingo.

Christmas is celebrated in the Dominican Republic more on Christmas Eve 24 from December (89%) that Christmas 25 (48%). And the celebration 25 It is higher in Santo Domingo (57%).

SONY DSCActivity par excellence is the Dominican Christmas Eve family dinner, reported by the 94%. But we look at the usual dinner or sharing some food more than once during the night, in different homes. About, 23% dinner at the home of other relatives and 7% at friends. Holding out is just more prevalent among the younger group, among whom a 24% He is going to a nightclub on Christmas Eve. However, Many do after having dined with family.

He 25, Christmas day, It is dedicated to visiting family (53%) and friends (31%), when it is not passed quiet at home (50%). Visiting friends is significantly higher among younger age groups (39%), like clubbing outputs (25%). In the highest socioeconomic levels more frequently in the habit of eating out at restaurants on Christmas Day (17%).

The end of the year, he 31 from December, It is held by a 90%, and again this celebration is significantly higher in younger ages (96% in the group 18 a 24) and declines with age. It is higher in the higher socioeconomic levels (94% at level AB) and Santiago (93%).

Although the family dinner is also the most frequent activity for the celebration of 31 from December, the tradition is slightly less massive than for Christmas Eve and is reported by a 79%. To celebrate New Year's Eve meetings with friends increase in one's house or at friends (28%), attendance at discotheques (20%) and attendance at formal parties organized by family and friends (14%). Attendance at the discos 31 from December, as might be expected, It is higher among younger age groups (36% in the group 18 a 24), in the highest socioeconomic status (27% an AB) and Santo Domingo (24%).

He 93% of respondents think wait wake of cannon fire 12 night for the 2014. Once again, this is more common among younger. People who will accompany them at this time are his closest relatives: children (61%), parents (58%) and husband / wife / partner with whom you live (46%). 52% will share at that time with other family members and 42% with friends.

Church attendance reaches a 7% Christmas Eve and 9% At the end of the year. On both dates, It is more common among women and the older group.

What will you do this Christmas Eve, Christmas and New Year? Wherever you celebrate and celebrate whatever you hope you spend some holidays in peace and harmony and that the year 2014 come full of successes for all, especially for our entire community market researchers and related professions Spanish-speaking.

Store Audit estimates ... A shooting?

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Audits stores for estimating volume and market share of the product categories of our clients are usually critical points in our business. Generally they are widely used in making marketing and sales decisions and often the results are highly questionable, when they fail an exact match with the actual customer sales or when specific actions do not reflect immediate results in estimates of market values.

Salvatore VuonoWe must begin by recognizing that estimates are just that Audit Store: statistical estimates. Proposed project, from a sample business, the global reality of the total population of businesses and offer a figure of total market volume. As estimates at last, its accuracy depends not only on the adequacy of the sample and the technical procedures or raised reliability data, but also the validity of the framework from which the sample results to the total population expand. We can have a flawless lift field from the technical point of view and, However, no "hit the target" with the actual figures of the market volume.

What increases the likelihood that the estimates are more accurate Store Audit and, thus, more useful for our customers? Of course, beyond the technical quality of design and information gathering. If we assume that the sample, the field survey, processing and quality control of the data is good, What other elements might be failing when we fail to figures and trends consistent with the reality of our customers ?

1- suitable population frame. The first critical element, It is to have an updated business census, comprehensive and appropriately discriminated, which allows the creation of pesos (expansion factors) correct and detailed. The more information we have on business, we can develop some expansion factors that take into account multiple variables, such as business type, size (Business volume for the particular category), geographic location. The higher the breakdown and are current and accurate census data, best estimates we can achieve. Regrettably, many of our markets do not have official date statistical information and business censuses is a costly and lengthy process. In our years of experience providing this service, We have found that every time we update census figures, a substantial improvement is evident in our estimates.

2. Knowledge of the particularities of the category in question. Each product category has specific problems and sometimes we happened upon market realities, not taken into account, may adversely affect the probability of "hitting" with estimates. Things like the presence of imported or smuggled products (that our customer does not reflect in their own sales), the illegal export, rotation different brands and types of products within a category, the existence of special offers or promotions the retailer by our customers or competition, changes in consumer habits, discovery of new uses. There is an unlimited list of considerations that may impact the analysis of each particular category. Thus, The more we know the behavior of a category, The better we interact with our customers to understand their particularities, there will be more likely to discover the need to make technical adjustments to the calculation of expansion factors for a particular product category.

3. proper definition of the scope and coverage estimates. When we perform estimates Store Audit and compared data with actual market figures, we must first make sure we are comparing m,anzanas with apples. Generally studies Store Audit does not cover all channels, nor the whole of the geography of a country. When we compare estimates with actual sales, we must ensure that we intend to estimate actual volumes correspond to the reality of our sample coverage. The better you know the sales structure of our clients, the better we can know if we project the numbers are correct or not.

4. performing regular coverage analysis. An analysis of coverage is just an exercise that compares projected trends by studying Store Audit with actual customer sales figures, in order to determine what percentage of sales that estimate covers. Many times we find customers who are not willing to share information for these exercises, since they consider that it is somehow "cheating". Something like give you the answer before you leave to ensure well on the exam. And it really is not so. Each time a client has shared with us their real numbers and have been able to make regular coverage analysis, we have seen an overall improvement in the quality of estimates, Since we have discovered elements have allowed us to make adjustments in estimates to represent more accurately the reality of a category. Thus, the improved estimate of customer data, improve estimates pace of competition and the overall market. This is reversed in more accurate knowledge for our customers and a greater ability to make appropriate decisions.

5. temporal considerations. We note that customer initiatives take some time to reach markets and, Besides, Store the Audit estimates usually have a lag of at least one or two months regarding the reality of sales. What a customer sells in a month to retailers it can be picked up one or two months depues by reading Store Audit, depending on the frequency of visits marketers client of our interviewers, and rotating the product to the ultimate consumer. When we are analyzing figures and want to know if "we hit the target" with an estimate, we must know what time period should properly compare. Generally as we have readings Store Audit more frequent and more aggregated data (compare trends quarterly instead of monthly trends, for example), differences in the curves are smoothed and adjusting the estimate shines in splendor.

In summary, estimates of market volume, as such, make assumptions. To the extent that we have more accuracy and updating assumptions and to the extent that we achieve more frequent and adequate contrasts with reality, the chances of achieving accurate estimates will increase. A target shooting?, you are right, but the difference in the result is given not only by the expertise of who throws the dart, but by his ability to see properly the target toward which triggers. Of course, to throw darts with their eyes open and knowing with certainty the wall and the exact location of the target will achieve better results than throwing darts blindfolded. Increased knowledge of customer business and increased communication and exchange of information is a surefire way to improve our estimates.